Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TS MELOR (20W) - Update #001

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [10:54 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Now issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MELOR (20W).

MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The Tropical Depression which developed yesterday afternoon has strengthened into Tropical Storm MELOR (20W)...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Saturday Oct 3...and shall pass in between Guam and Saipan or over the small island of Rota on Saturday evening. Its projected wind speeds is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to organize with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 155.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,210 km (655 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (627 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 12.4N 153.9E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.5N 152.2E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.1N 149.1E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 13.8N 146.7E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 11.7N 155.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ALSO, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION,
THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASING PGTW AND KNES DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5
TO 3.0 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE
IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE BUILDING CONVECTION AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...(more)

>> MELOR, meaning: Jasmine Flower. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MELOR (20W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS 18W (UNNAMED) passing over Guam... [Update #008]

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [12:00 PM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TS 18W (UNNAMED).

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
11:00 AM PST (03:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) to pass near Guam any moment from now...Gale-force winds w/ rains expected.

*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system as it passes very close to Guam. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range forecast shows the system dissipating and being absorbed into the circulation of Typhoon PARMA, which is a much stronger system.

+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall w/ gale-force winds (30-60 kph) across the Marianas today.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 145.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) SSW of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Guam-Rota Area
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 14.1N 143.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 28 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 15.0N 140.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 30 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.6N 133.4E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 13.1N 146.0E.
*DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPORADICALLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DISRUPTION OF
INFLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TY 19W TO THE WEST AND TS 20W TO THE
EAST HAS HINDERED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE SYSTEM IS STEERING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH...(more)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Typhoon PARMA (Pre-PEPENG) about to enter PAR... [Update #007]

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [12:08 PM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) rapidly gained strength...now a Category 1 Typhoon...currently showing a pin-hole EYE as it prepares to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

*Residents and visitors along the east of coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to enter PAR late this afternoon and track NW'ly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the WNW across the Philippine Sea as it reaches Category 3 strength with winds of more than 200 kph and a distance of about 565 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC. PARMA shall be about 230 km. NE of Batanes Islands on Monday, Oct 5 - as it approaches the SE coast of Taiwan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...although small, its inner (rain) bands continues to spread west of Yap Island. Its western outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (heavy rain) near the center of this storm.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TY PARMA, currently passing near Guam. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon.

(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to intensify while moving WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 9.6º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) West of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 295 km (158 nm) NNE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,130 km (610 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,440 km (778 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 1,690 km (912 nm) SE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.5N 135.3E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.2N 133.5E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NW @ 20 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.9N 129.8E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.5N 127.5E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.0N 136.8E.
*THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON BASED ON INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BY PGTW, RJTD AND KNES ALONG WITH A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE
FEATURE SEEN IN A 292056Z SSMI IMAGE...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PARMA (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm