Tuesday, June 10, 2008

All-New T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 10-23, 2008]

 
The All-New Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 10 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 17 JUNE
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 10-16, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday] 

[1] An increased chance of above-average rainfall across Southern Philippines
(Palawan-Southern Visayas-Mindanao). Wet conditions are expected in this area
as a result of the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation's (MJO) Wet-Phase, onset
of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon, enhanced ITCZ and areas of above sea surface
temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Tropical Cyclone Formation over the South China Sea, Philippine Sea &
Northwest Pacific Ocean is NOT EXPECTED within the week. Atmospheric factors
including descending air masses & weak MJO phase over the region remains
unfavorable for Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 17-23, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday] 

[1] An increased chance of above-average rainfall across the whole Philippines
(Luzon-Visayas-Mindanao). Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of
the wet-phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, enhanced ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures.
Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclone Genesis for the South China
Sea & East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea). Active convection and increasingly
more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of this region associated with
MJO are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development. Confidence: MODERATE.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook week.

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday.

> The next outlook will be issued on Tuesday, June 17, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
_____________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Always visit these web addresses for the latest info on Philippine Tropical
Cyclones:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 09:49 0 comments

Saturday, June 07, 2008

T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 9-15, 2008]

 
Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
For Week: JUNE 09-15, 2008 [MONDAY TO SUNDAY] 
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) SAT 07 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) SAT 14 JUNE
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
[1] A continued chance of below-average rainfall across The Philippines.
Dry conditions are expected due to the prevailing weak phase of Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO). Numerical Global Forecast also depicts this kind of situation.
Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Tropical Cyclone Formation over the South China Sea, Philippine Sea &
Northwest Pacific Ocean is not expected within the week. Atmospheric factors
including descending air masses & weak MJO phase over the region remains
unfavorable for Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: HIGH.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above weekly tropical forecast outlook, does
not guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes can happen within the designated outlook week.
_____________________________________________________________________________

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday except during
  presence of Tropical Cyclones within the Philippine Area of Res-
  ponsibility (PAR).

> The next outlook will be issued on Saturday, June 14, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models
_____________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Always visit these web addresses for the latest info on Philippine Tropical
Cyclones:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 18:21 0 comments

Monday, June 02, 2008

Typhoon NAKRI (ENTENG) exits PAR... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009
Name: TYPHOON NAKRI [ENTENG/06W/0805] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 02 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 025
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON NAKRI (ENTENG) HAS LEFT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR) WHILE ACCELERATING FASTER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...CONTINUES
TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to weaken into a Tropical Storm
tomorrow morning. The 2-day short range forecast shows NAKRI accelerating
NE to ENE'ly across the open sea of the NW Pacific passing in between
Chichi Jima Island and Southern Japan tomorrow, June 3. It shall become
an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow night. 

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's eye and its eyewall along w/ its spiral cloud bands
remains over the Northwest Pacific Ocean and is not affecting any
landmass.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 02 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.9º N...LONGITUDE 134.9º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 690 KM (372 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN 
DISTANCE 2: 610 KM (330 NM) WSW OF CHICHI JIMA ISLAND 
DISTANCE 3: 1,340 KM (725 NM) ENE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,445 KM (780 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME MON JUNE 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (06 GMT) 02 JUNE: 28.2N 136.4E / 130-160 KPH / NE @ 37 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 03 JUNE: 31.2N 139.3E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 37 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 04 JUNE: 34.2N 148.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 39 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 02 JUNE POSITION: 25.0N 134.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY, AGAINST
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS, FROM 70 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY RESULTED FROM PASSAGE
OVER A PATCH OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT AND ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
THE NORTH. FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 16 KNOTS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING RIDGE...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower. 
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY NAKRI (ENTENG/06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 13:42 0 comments

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Typhoon NAKRI (ENTENG) - Update #008

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON NAKRI [ENTENG/06W/0805] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 01 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 020
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON NAKRI (06W) HAS SLOWED DOWN ONCE AGAIN WHILE HEADING NORTH, AWAY
FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to weaken further and be downgraded
into a Tropical Storm this afternoon and exit PAR tomorrow morning. The
4-day long range forecast shows NAKRI recurving and accelerating NE-ward
across the open sea of the NW Pacific. It shall start transitioning into
an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow afternoon (June 2). 

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's weakening eyewall with its radial, spiral cloud band
circulation remains over the Northeastern Philippine Sea and is not
affecting any small or large landmass at this time.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH: ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting NCR,
Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - may continue to bring scattered
rains and chances of scattered thunderstorms - most especially in the
afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 01 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.3º N...LONGITUDE 132.8º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 845 KM (455 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN 
DISTANCE 2: 1,005 KM (542 NM) WSW OF IWO TO 
DISTANCE 3: 1,185 KM (640 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,135 KM (612 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH  
DISTANCE 5: 1,260 KM (680 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN    
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 390 KM (210 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN JUNE 01
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 JUNE: 21.7N 133.1E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 JUNE: 24.1N 133.8E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 JUNE: 29.8N 138.8E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 37 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JUNE: 33.2N 147.3E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 37 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 JUNE POSITION: 20.1N 132.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAS CONTINUED ITS POLEWARD TRACK AND
WEAKENING TREND, DECREASING FROM 80 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. FORWARD TRACK SPEED INCREASED OVER THE SAME PERIOD AS
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED ALONG THE WESTWARD PERIPHERY OF THE STEE-
RING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO
BEEN OBSERVED, ESPECIALLY OVER THE POLEWARD PORTIONS OF THE
TYPHOON...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower. 
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY NAKRI (ENTENG/06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

__._,_.___
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Posted by MJ Klein at 08:42 0 comments

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