Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Sunday, November 04, 2007

TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN) approaching Isabela-Aurora... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 05 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (KABAYAN) ALMOST A TYPHOON AS IT BEARS DOWN THE

COAST OF NORTHERN AURORA AND SOUTHERN ISABELA...LANDFALL JUST A FEW

HOURS AWAY. STORMY CONDITIONS NOW BEING FELT ACROSS AURORA AND ISABELA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is likely to reach Typhoon strength before

its landfall just north of Casiguran and will cut across Northern

Luzon tonight. The 24-hour Forecast shows the system traversing the

provinces of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao & Benguet tonight and shall

move out into the South China Sea via La Union by tomorrow morning

(approx 8-9 AM Manila Time). It shall abruptly weaken as it interacts

with the mountainous terrain of Luzon (Sierra Madre and Cordillera

Mountains). The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows PEIPAH becoming

a Typhoon as it approaches the Southern Coast of Vietnam sometime

Friday morning, Nov 9.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's developing EyeWall is now off the coast of

Aurora-Isabela area - bringing very strong winds in excess of 100

km/hr accompanied with very heavy rains. Its inner rainbands on the

other hand, continues to spread across Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora and

Nueva Vizcaya. Strong winds in excess of 60 km/hr with intermittent

heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands. The storm's outer

rainbands is now affecting Northern & Central Luzon...Rains and winds

of up to 60 km/hr can be expected along these bands. Coastal Storm

Surge flooding of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with

large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the

north of PEIPAH's projected path particularly on where the center

makes landfall in Aurora-Isabela area. Minimal damage is possible on

this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible

along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TS PEIPAH

(KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains &

strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across the Batanes and Babuyan

Group of Islands. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely

to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or surges

generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas

of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is

under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.8º N...LONGITUDE 122.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 145 KM (78 NM) SE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 240 KM (130 NM) ENE OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 305 KM (165 NM) NNE OF METRO MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 5: 360 KM (195 NM) NNW OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA-ISABELA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOVEMBER 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ISABELA, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA & NORTHERN
AURORA.
#02 - CAGAYAN, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, BENGUET, ABRA,

ILOCOS SUR, NUEVA ECIJA, LA UNION, PANGASINAN,
REST OF AURORA.
#01 - BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE,

TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN
QUEZON & POLILLO ISLAND.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 16.7N 121.2E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 16.8N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 16.1N 116.8E / 110-140 KPH / SW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER POSITION: 16.8N 123.4E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PEIPAH) HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, EXHIBITING EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
RAPID LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH NOT YET EVIDENT ON MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYE-FEATURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS...(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau.
Name contributed by: Macau.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 16.7N 123.0E / WSW @ 24 KPH / 115 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN) - Update #002

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (KABAYAN) SLOWS DOWN WHILE HEADING ON A DAN-

GEROUS WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON...MAY BECOME A TYPHOON

BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CASIGURAN TONIGHT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to continue moving WSW within

12 hours and turn Westward, becoming a 130-km/hr, miminal Typhoon

(Category 1) prior to landfall over Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora

area tonight. The 24 hour Forecast shows the system traversing Nor-

thern Luzon late tonight until tomorrow morning - passing over the

provinces of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet and exit thru La

Union. It shall abruptly weaken into a Tropical Storm as it interacts

with the mountainous terrain of Luzon (Sierra Madre and Cordillera

Mountains). PEIPAH shall move out into the South China Sea tomorrow

noontime and resume its WSW to SW'ly track across the South China Sea.

The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows PEIPAH re-strengthening into

a Typhoon as it approaches the Southern Coast of Vietnam sometime

Friday morning, Nov 9.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has been expanding over the past 12

hours, with its inner rainbands now spreading across Cagayan, Isabela,

Aurora and Nueva Vizcaya. Strong winds in excess of 60 km/hr with in-

termittent heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands. The outer

rainbands on the other hand is now spreading across the Central portions

of Northern Luzon. Rains and winds of up to 60 km/hr can be expected

along these bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected path particu-

larly on where the center makes landfall in Aurora-Isabela area. Minimal

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is also possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TS PEIPAH