Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 28 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 28 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 28 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
____________
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (PAENG) RAPIDLY INTESIFYING AS IT
NEARS LUZON...FORWARD MOTION HAS JOGGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL REGION, CENTRAL & NORTHERN
LUZON SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM CIMARON.
THE NORTHWEST.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE BICOL REGION, CENTRAL & NORTHERN
LUZON SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM CIMARON.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CIMARON is expected to become a ty-
phoon today and shall resume its WNW track for the next
24 to 36 hours. The center is forecast to pass well to
the north of Bicol Region by Sunday (Oct 29), with its
closest point of approach of approximately 290 km NNE
of Naga City around 2 PM. The 2 to 4-day (Oct 30-Nov 1)
long-range forecast shows CIMARON making landfall just
to the north of Casiguran, Aurora or over the Sierra
Madre Mountains early Monday morning (Oct 30) and shall
weaken as it crosses Northern Luzon passing over the
provinces of Aurora, Quirino, Southern Isabela, Nueva
Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet & La Union. The center shall
be over the South China Sea early Tuesday morning, Oct
31. Further weakening of CIMARON over the South China
Sea is forecast due to poor atmospheric environment
(cooler sea surface temperatures & increasing wind shear).
+ EFFECTS: The system's outer bands is expected to arrive
over the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces anytime today.
Increasing sea swells and high waves can be expected along
the eastern coasts of the Philippines as CIMARON continues
to move closer to Luzon. Please take all necessary precau-
tions and start boarding up as this system may cause con-
siderable damage along its projected forecast path.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.2º N...LONGITUDE 128.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 470 KM (255 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 585 KM (315 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 730 KM (395 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 4: 810 KM (438 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: QUEZON-AURORA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST SAT OCTOBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES.
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE & ALBAY.
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCT: 14.8N 127.3E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 OCT: 15.5N 125.7E / 160-195 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCT: 16.5N 122.2E / 160-195 KPH / WEST @ 15 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.0N 129.1E.
^TS Cimaron continues to track west-northwestward along
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge anchored
east of Taiwan and this general track is expected to conti-
nue through 48 hours. An approaching midlatitude low pre-
ssure trough currently over central China will induce a
weakness in the steering ridge between 24 and 36 hours.
However, this trough is not expected to extend far enough
EquatorWard to capture TS Cimaron into the mid-latitude
flow. A ridge building over Eastern China in the wake of
this trough will become the primary steering mechanism
for TS Cimaron after 48 hours and is expected to flatten
the storm track to nearly due west as the storm crosses
Central Luzon...(more info)
>> CIMARON {pronounced: see~mah~ron}
Wild Ox. Name contributed by: Philippines
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 14.0N 128.8E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 95 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TS CIMARON (PAENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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