for Monday, 04 May 2015 [7:49 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM NOUL UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Monday 04 May 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Morning, 05 May 2015
Tropical Storm NOUL has slightly gained strength as it lingers over Western Micronesia...Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. This storm is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 5 to 6 days.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia, Palau, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
None for the next 5 to 6 days.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 04...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS NOUL (06W)
Location: Over the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia (near 9.8N 139.7E)
About: 180 km east-northeast of Colonia, Yap...or 1,550 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 07 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS NOUL (06W) is expected to move westward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, Noul will move across Western Micronesia, passing very near and north of Yap State on Tuesday evening...and shall approach the P.A.R. on Wednesday night.
NOUL will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. It is likely to become a Typhoon on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph by Wednesday afternoon (May 6).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: About to pass very near and north of Yap State...becomes a strong TS...about 55 km northeast of Colonia, Yap [2PM MAY 05: 9.8N 138.4E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Moves away from Western Micronesia as it approaches the eastern border of P.A.R....becomes a Typhoon...about 115 km west-northwest of Colonia, Yap [2PM MAY 06: 9.8N 137.1E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it turns to northwest after crossing the P.A.R....about 925 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 07: 11.2N 134.2E @ 175kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon May 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.8º N Lat 139.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 515 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 685 km SW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 3: 635 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1525 km E of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1725 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NOUL (06W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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