Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Monday, August 09, 2010

TS DIANMU [ESTER] exits PAR... (Update #06)

for Monday, 09 August 2010 [8:38 AM PhT]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on ESTER!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 09 2010):

8AM Updated Position of DIANMU: 25.6N 125.6E. Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Mon 09 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

DIANMU (ESTER) now a Tropical Storm...passing over Yaeyama Island Chain...exits the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR). Intensified SW Monsoon (Habagat) weakens slightly, just affecting portions of Western Luzon including Metropolitan Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 09 2010
Location of Center: 25.0º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 155 km (83 nm) ENE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 2: 290 km (157 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 415 km (225 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 430 km (233 nm) ENE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 630 km (340 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: South Korea
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
T2K Final TrackMap #006 (for Public): 7 AM PhT Mon Aug 09

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue tracking Northward and intensify further within the next 12 to 24 hours. It will reach its peak intensity of 85 kph by tomorrow afternoon - while moving into the warmer waters of the East China Sea [2PM AUG 10: 31.0N 125.2E @ 85kph]. The 2 to 4-Day Long-Range Forecast Track shows the system weakening while passing very close to the west of Cheju Island by early Wednesday morning [2AM AUG 11: 32.9N 125.6E @ 85kph]. DIANMU shall make landfall and cross South Korea by Wednesday afternoon, passing very close to Taegu City. It shall then move out into the Sea of Japan around Thursday and become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) by Friday [2AM AUG 13: 38.6N 136.3E @ 65kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's circulation particularly its inner bands is currently affecting the Yaeyama and Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chains. Intense rain and wind convection remains to the South & SE quadrants of the tropical storm. Strong winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along these island chains. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated south of DIANMU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN & WESTERN LUZON including portions of METRO MANILA, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW winds (not in excess of 45 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

A new, developing Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) was detected just south of the Pacific island of Yap, and has been tracking Westward @ 20 kph. Located near lat 8.5N lon 138.0E...or about 1,275 km East of Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above area will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph this morning. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 09 AUGUST POSITION: 24.2N 125.3E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081742Z AMSRE 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND
CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30
TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. A 081225Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND 20 TO
30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. NEAR TAU 72
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTH
KOREA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 96 TS
DIANMU IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING FASTER TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 9

Visit Your Group

MARKETPLACE

Get great advice about dogs and cats. Visit the Dog & Cat Answers Center.

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

Hobbies & Activities Zone: Find others who share your passions! Explore new interests.

Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

__,_._,___

Sunday, August 08, 2010

TD 05W [ESTER] - Update #05

for Sunday, 08 August 2010 [7:15 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 05W (ESTER).

05W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 08 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 05W (ESTER) tracking NNE closer to Ishigaki Island...No change in strength. SW Monsoon Rains continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of 05W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 08 2010
Location of Center: 23.3º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) SE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 2: 400 km (215 nm) ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 420 km (227 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 430 km (233 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 490 km (265 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: NNE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #005 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Aug 08

+ Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to continue tracking NNE to Northward and attain tropical storm status within the next 12 to 24 hours. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning and pass about 140 km to the West of Okinawa Island by tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 09: 26.7N 126.4E @ 65kph]. The system will maintain a straight poleward track, reaching its peak intensity of 75 kph Tuesday afternoon [2PM AUG 10: 30.7N 126.5E @ 75kph] as it moves into the warmer waters of the East China Sea. The 3 to 4-Day Long-Range Forecast Track shows the system weakening as it transitions into an Extratropical Cyclone (ET). It shall then pass very close to the east of Cheju Island and make landfall along the southern coast of South Korea on Wednesday afternoon [2PM AUG 11: 34.4N 127.6E @ 65kph]. 05W shall traverse South Korea Wednesday evening passing in between Taegu and Busan Cities, before moving out into the Sea of Japan Thursday morning. It will completely reach ET status on Thursday afternoon while accelerating eastward across the Sea of Japan [2PM AUG 12: 37.9N 132.6E @ 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 05W's circulation is now approaching the small island of Ishigaki w/c is a part of the Yaeyama Island Chain. Intense rain and wind convection remains to the South & SW of the depression. Its SW & NE outer bands continues to affect the Batanes Group and now over Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, where moderate to strong winds of up to 40 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected. The southern convective circulation of 05W is expected to affect Yaeyama Island Chain beginning early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated south of 05W's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN PANAY, BORACAY, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1003 MB) almost stationary over the South China Sea, close to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 111.0E...or about 1,010 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above area will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 05W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 08 AUGUST POSITION: 22.9N 125.3E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION STILL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE LLCC
DUE TO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER THE LLCC WHICH HAS
CAUSED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS
IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH LAND AS WELL AS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY
TAU 96 IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MODELS
DEPICTING VARIOUS DEGREES OF A WESTWARD PUSH BY THE STEERING RIDGE
AROUND TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THE GFDN MODEL TRACKS MORE WESTWARD
TOWARDS SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS A TRACK
CLOSER TO SASEBO, JAPAN. FINALLY, THE GFS TRACKER IS AN OUTLIER TO
THE EAST AS IT SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN
BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CHEJU
ISLAND...(more)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 05W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 7

Visit Your Group

Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

__,_._,___

TD 05W [ESTER] - Update #04

for Sunday, 08 August 2010 [12:43 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 05W (ESTER).

05W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 08 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 05W (ESTER) slightly intensified as it accelerates slighty to the NE...may pass to the east of Okinawa Island tomorrow.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of 05W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 08 2010
Location of Center: 22.5º N Lat 125.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SSE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 445 km (240 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 540 km (292 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #004 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sun Aug 08

+ Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to track NNE to Northward for the next 12 to 24 hours...exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning and pass about 155 km East of Okinawa Island around 8 AM tomorrow [8AM AUG 09: 26.3N 126.2E @ 55kph]. The system will reach Tropical Storm status tomorrow evening [8PM AUG 09: 28.4N 126.4E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 4-Day Long-Range Forecast Track shows the system reaching its peak intensity of 75 kph on Tuesday morning [8AM AUG 10: 30.7N 126.4E @ 75kph], passing over the Korean Resort Island of Cheju early Wednesday morning, and will be off the Southern Coast of South Korea before noontime Wednesday [8AM AUG 11: 34.1N 127.0E @ 65kph]. 05W will make landfall around noontime Wednesday and cross South Korea as it transforms into an Extratropical (ET) Cyclone. It will completely reach ET status on Thursday morning over the Sea of Japan [8AM AUG 12: 38.1N 131.4E @ 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 05W's circulation has improved slightly as it enters a lower upper-level wind environment (wind shear). Its Southwestern outer bands continues to affect the Extreme Northern Islands of Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 40 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan, Batanes & Babuyan Islands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 55 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1003 MB) almost stationary over the South China Sea, close to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 112.0E...or about 910 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) SUN 08 AUGUST POSITION: 22.2N 124.7E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072123Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072229Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 072308 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT
A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED FROM A BROADER
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE REVERSE MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AT
00Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER JAPAN. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND IS
EXPERIENCING LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KNOTS)...(more)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 05W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm