Monday, January 09, 2017

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 004

 


Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 004

auring-bauring-loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Monday 09 January 2017
Next update: Monday Afternoon,  09 January 2017
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression 01W (AURING) has weakened as it tracks across the eastern part of the Bohol Sea on its way to Central Visayas. Its rain bands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains across much of the Visayan Islands today especially over the northern parts.

This depression is expected to turn west to west-southwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 15 km/hr crossing Northern Bohol and Southern Cebu through Southern Negros. 01W (AURING) will likely weaken into a Low Pressure Area after traversing the said provinces.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains that can cause flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 09…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Canigao Channel (near 10.0N 124.7E), about 24 km southwest of Maasin City, Southern Leyte or 28 km east of Ubay, Bohol.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph. 
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 17 kphtowards Northern Bohol.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Northern Bohol this morning, over Southern Cebu around noontime, and over the eastern-central coast of Negros Oriental early this afternoon, with a Strike Probability of 70-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Most parts of the Visayas – today.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a low pressure area after crossing the southern parts of Central and Western Visayas…about 131 km southwest of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [2AM JAN 10: 9.2N 121.9E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains a little bit of strength as it tracks across the Sulu Sea…makes another landfall over Central Palawan…about 67 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM JAN 11: 9.6N 118.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens anew and moves out of the Philippine area of Responsibility (PAR) in a westerly to west-northwesterly track…about 62 km south-southeast of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [2AM JAN 12: 10.5N 114.4E @ 35kph].    Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jan 09, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 98 km ENE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 2: 96 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 3: 123 km ESE of Toledo City, Cebu
Distance 4: 202 km ESE of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 648 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines

auring-tcws

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 003

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 003

auring03
auring03z
auring03sat

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 003

Issued at: 12:45 AM PhT (16:45 GMT) Monday 09 January 2017
Next update: Monday Morning,  09 January 2017
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression 01W (AURING) has slowed down further…creeping across Awasan Bay in Dinagat as it gained a little bit of strength.  Its rainbands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains across Surigao del Norte and much of the Visayan Islands today.

This depression is expected to accelerate slightly westward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 12 km/hr and will cross Bohol and Southern Cebu this morning through the afternoon.  01W (AURING) may likely weaken into a low pressure upon traversing Negros this evening.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)?As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, January 08…1500 GMT.  The center was located over Awasan Bay, Dinagat  (near 9.8N 125.6E), about 11 km northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte or 56 km west of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

*A WPF automated weather station (AWS) located in Surigao City (LPP) has recorded wind gusts of 56 km/hr blowing from the Northwest (NW) at 11:30 PM (15:30 GMT) Jan 08.  

Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 05 kphtowards Southern Leyte-Bohol-Cebu Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Southern Leyte-Bohol Area between 3-8am this morningwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Surigao Provinces and most parts of the Visayas – today.

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**MONDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area as it crosses Negros Island…about 44 km east of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [8PM JAN 09: 10.0N 123.2E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  LOW.

TUESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies into a weak Tropical Depression (TD) while emerging over the Sulu Sea and approaches Palawan…about 136 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM JAN 10: 9.4N 119.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level:LOW.

WEDNESDAY EVENING:  Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Palawan, dissipates once again into an area of low pressure, exits the wester border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 70 km south-southeast of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [8PM JAN 11: 10.5N 114.5E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 110 km SE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 2: 188 km ENE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 3: 194 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 309 km ESE of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 716 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

auring03s

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Sunday, January 08, 2017

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 002

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 002

auring02
auring02z
ezgif-com-optimize

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 002

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 08 January 2017
Next update: Monday Early Morning,  09 January 2017
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression 01W (AURING) is now in the vicinity of Dinagat Islands, after passing very close to Siargao Island a few hours ago. Its rainbands will continue to bring heavy rains across Northeastern Mindanao and Central Visayas this evening through Monday (Jan 09).

This depression is expected to move slowly on a west-northwest to westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr and will traverse Surigao Del Norte tonight, passing across Southern Leyte-Bohol-Cebu Area by Monday morning,  and over Negros Island by Monday afternoon (Jan 09).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, January 08…0900 GMT.  The center was located in between the islands of Siargao and Dinagat, or just south of Dinagat Sound (near 9.7N 125.8E), about 31 km southwest of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte or 35 km east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 18 kphtowards Surigao del Norte-Southern Leyte-Bohol Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Surigao del Norte between 6-8pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%; and over the Southernmost part of Southern Leyte between 12-2am Monday (Jan 09)with a high strike probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Central Visayas – tonight through Monday (Jan 09).

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area while over Central Negros…about 40 km south-southeast of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [2PM JAN 09: 10.3N 123.1E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into a weak Tropical Depression (TD) while emerging over the Sulu Sea…about 175 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM JAN 10: 9.7N 120.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Palawan, dissipates once again into an area of low pressure…about 316 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM JAN 11: 10.7N 116.0E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.7º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km NNE of Butuan City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 2: 134 km SE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 3: 218 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 219 km E of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 5: 739 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


auring02s

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 001

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 001

auring01
auring01z
auring01loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 001

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Sunday 08 January 2017
Next update: Sunday Evening,  08 January 2017
Current Status and OutlookThe broad tropical disturbance (LPA 96W) near the east coast of Surigao del Sur has strengthened into Tropical Depression 01W, with local name "Auring"…now threatens Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Visayas.

This depression is expected to accelerate on a west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr and will traverse Surigao Del Norte tonight, passing across the northern coast of Bohol early Monday morning and over Central Cebu at around 8am (Jan 09).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, January 08…0300 GMT.  The center was located near the east coast of Tandag, Surigao del Sur (near 9.3N 126.7E), about 94 km southeast of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte or 143 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving Northwest @ 13 kphtowards Surigao del Norte-Bohol Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Surigao del Norte between 6-8pm tonight, with a high Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Visayas.

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**MONDAY MORNING: Over Tanon Strait or between Cebu and Negros…about 69 km east-southeast of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [8AM JAN 09: 10.4N 123.5E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Turns westward across Sulu Sea just after traversing Western Visayas and intensifies slightly…about 78 km south of Cuyo Island [8AM JAN 10: 10.2N 121.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Maintains its strength after crossing Northern Palawan…emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 206 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM JAN 11: 10.5N 117.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.3º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km NNE of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur
Distance 2: 139 km ENE of Bislig City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 3: 320 km ESE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 4: 326 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 5: 848 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

auring01s


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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