Thursday, June 14, 2012

TS GUCHOL [BUTCHOY] - Update #011


for Thursday, 14 June 2012 [6:31 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 14 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) almost a Typhoon as it maintains its westerly track...may pose a threat to the Eastern Bicol and Extreme Northern Luzon.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning Friday and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu June 14 2012
Location of Center: 10.8º N Lat 133.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 860 km ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 866 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 907 km ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 966 km ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 1,037 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 6: 1,041 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 7: 1,075 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 8: 1,084 km ESE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 9: 1,114 km ESE of Iriga City
Distance 10: 1,141 km ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu June 14


GUCHOL is expected to decrease on its westerly track w/in the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning sharply to the northwest through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will move across the Philippine Sea through Sunday without hitting any land areas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Typhoon (TY) later tonight or early Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. GUCHOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to typhoon intensity...decelerating as it starts to turn sharply northwestward while over the Philippine Sea [2PM JUN 15: 11.4N 130.0E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Category 2 status as it moves NW to NNW...about 350 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM JUN 16: 14.1N 127.4E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to Category 2...starts to move poleward (north) sparing Extreme Northern Luzon...about 369 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUN 17: 18.5N 125.2E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Western Micronesia incl. Palau. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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